Global lead-lag changes between climate variability series coincide with major phase shifts in the Pacific decadal oscillation

Abstract

We show that there are distinct periods when three ocean variability series in the Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans persistently lead or lag each other, as well as distinct periods when ocean variability series lead the rate of changes in global temperature anomaly (∆GTA) and in atmospheric CO2 concentration (1880–2019). The superimposed lead-lag (LL) relations that can be formed from the five climate series (three ocean series, GTA and CO2), ΣLL(10), change directions or weaken synchronously at 6 years: 1900, 1926, 1965, 1977, 1997, and 2013. During the same years, the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) changes between positive ( +) and negative (-) phases, but with an additional phase shift in 1947/48. We find bi-decadal oscillations in the rate of change in global temperature, ∆GTA, during the same years. Since the hiatus periods are closely related to the cold phase (-) in PDO, the hiatus periods may also be related to global changes in ocean interactions.