A life course perspective on the NEET phenomenon: long-term exclusion across cohorts, gender, and social origin among young adults in Norway

Abstract

This study addresses the limitations of the NEET indicator (Not in Education, Employment, or Training) as a measure of the risk of social exclusion. Applying a life course analytical framework and sequence analysis to administrative data from Norway, we investigate the link between NEET status and longer-term exclusion across cohorts, gender, and social origin. Young adults with at least one year of NEET status at ages 22–25 (N = 125 804) are followed for ten years (age 22–31), spanning the years 1993– 2017. Results show a mixed picture for individuals with early-career NEET status: 38 percent fare well over the long term, while over one-third face persistent challenges of long-term exclusion or reliance on permanent disability benefits. A deterioration of longer-term prospects, stronger among men than women, is observed across cohorts. An initial large gender gap in long-term exclusion probability in men´s favor disappears in the youngest cohorts. Social inequalities remain stable over time. Findings support recent research emphasizing NEET category heterogeneity. Static measures may both exaggerate and underestimate the challenges faced by different sub-populations. The risk of long-term exclusion changes markedly over time, showcasing how the NEET indicator’s sensitivity as a measure of at-risk youth depends on the historical-institutional context.