The effects of COVID-19 policies on consumer spending in Norway

Abstract

We examine the effect of COVID‐19 policies on consumer spending using bankcard transactions from Norway. Exploiting variation in COVID‐19 policies over time and across space in the four largest municipalities, we investigate the heterogeneity of policy effects in their number and type. First, we document that the number of restrictions is negatively correlated with spending and exhibits decreasing marginal effects. Second, restrictions do not affect all types of spending equally: restrictions tend to have larger impacts on the sector in which they are targeted. Finally, we find suggestive evidence from a difference‐ in‐differences estimation that supports a causal interpretation of our results.