High-resolution lead–lag relations between Barents Sea temperatures, the AMOC and the AMO during 1971-2018

Abstract

The direction of heat transport from the atmosphere to the Barents Sea, and between the Barents Sea and the North Atlantic is important for understanding the interplay between Greenland ice melting and anthro- pogenic forcing. Here, we show how heat has been transported between water bodies by using a high-resolution lead-lag technique that identifies leading relations between cyclic temperature series. The results demonstrate that near-surface ocean temperature (0–30 m) in the Barents Sea led the temperature changes in its intermediate waters (100–200 m) during the period 1971 to 2018 inferring that heat transport is from the atmosphere to the intermediate waters. The Barents Sea’s temperatures lagged the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) from 1971 to 2000. The AMOC was leading the Barents Sea near-bottom temperatures in the West (the Bear Island Through) during 1980–2018 but was both leading and lagging in the Barents Sea Northeast.