Carbon dioxide precedes temperature change during short-term pauses in multi-millennial palaeoclimate records
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2018-06-19Metadata
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Seip K, Grøn Ø, Wang H. Carbon dioxide precedes temperature change during short-term pauses in multi-millennial palaeoclimate records. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology. 2018 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2018.06.021Abstract
In Antarctica, ice-core temperature has traditionally been regarded as a leading variable to carbon dioxide, CO2
during the last 400,000years before present (B.P.). This finding is in contrast to most reports on global mean surface
temperature and atmospheric CO2 for the last 150years. However, previous techniques for establishing leading
or lagging (LL) relations between paired global warming variables have required that the time series show
constant frequency (stationarity). Herein, we show that on orbital and multi-millennial time scales, the Vostok
Antarctic ice core displays 9 periods of 8.7kyr±5kyr during which CO2 becomes a leading variable to temperature.
Six of the 9 periods were associated with short-term pauses occurring during 4 major glaciation-deglaciation
periods. We find that CO2 also leads temperature during short pauses in the major cyclic pattern of the Greenland
time series. In the latter series, there are also two contrasting cycle developments. In the first contrasting cycle
developments, lasting from 103.5 to 79ka, there is an in-phase relation between CO2 and temperature, with a
slope of 0.75. In the second contrasting cycle developments, lasting from 61.5 to 43.5ka, there is an out-of-phase
relation with a slope of −0.67. In addition, the latter shows a see-saw pattern between Arctic and Antarctic temperatures.