Hvordan vil det norske OMF-markedet påvirkes av en ny finanskrise? Hvordan vil et negativt økonomisk sjokk påvirke finanssektoren i lys av økt økonomisk eksponering mot OMF-markedet?

Abstract

This master thesis is written with a descriptive discussion of the financing done by the Norwegian banks through covered bonds. To find weaknesses in the market for covered bonds, we have chosen to go through the situation in the market today and to describe the laws associated with the issuing of covered bonds. We have created a model in our analysis that estimates how sensitive covered bonds are to a decrease in the housing market. We have gathered detailed information from relevant participants in the covered bond market to supplement the discussion. The discussion includes weaknesses in the covered bond market and explore potential liquidity problems, if the national economy is exposed to at negative shock. The analysis show that covered bonds are dependent of being tradeable and liquid in the marked, and the weaknesses are primarily dependent on investors, that do not look at the bond as liquid anymore. The liquidity can be reduced by a falling confidence in the housing market and to the creditors. This will increase the credit risk. The conclusion is that the deposit agreement for covered bonds to the central bank (Norges Bank) is a vital preventive measure to make covered bond less risky if the liquidity is reduced.