Changing educational aspirations in the choice of and transition to post-compulsory schooling - a three-wave longitudinal study of Oslo youth

Abstract

With the transition from a comprehensive compulsory school to differentiating upper secondary schools, young people in Norway are forced to choose their future educational path and look ahead. How does educational choice and transition to upper secondary school affect their educational aspirations? In this study, an Oslo-based cohort sample (N = 1660) of young people's educational aspirations is analysed over three time points; before, during and after choosing upper secondary education. The analyses show that many change their educational aspirations during the three-year period, and that decreasing aspirations before transition to upper secondary school is related to low or decreased achievement and school effort, as well as male gender, majority ethnic background and lower social class. Reduced educational aspirations after the transition to upper secondary education are related to decreased effort as well as low and decreasing achievement, but not to structural characteristics. This may be interpreted as an indication that structural background characteristics play a stronger role in shaping aspirations during the decision process proceeding educational choice, than in the transition itself.