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dc.contributor.authorSivle, Anders Honningdalen_US
dc.contributor.authorKolstø, Stein Dankerten_US
dc.contributor.authorHansen, Pål Kirkebyen_US
dc.contributor.authorKristiansen, Jensen_US
dc.date.accessioned2015-02-10T09:38:15Z
dc.date.available2015-02-10T09:38:15Z
dc.date.issued2014-07en_US
dc.identifier.citationSivle, A. D., Kolstø, S. D., Kirkeby Hansen, P. J., & Kristiansen, J. (2014). How Do Laypeople Evaluate the Degree of Certainty in a Weather Report? A Case Study of the Use of the Web Service yr. no. Weather, Climate, and Society, 6(3), 399-412.en_US
dc.identifier.issn1948-8327en_US
dc.identifier.otherFRIDAID 1146756en_US
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10642/2370
dc.description.abstractMany people depend on and use weather forecasts to plan their schedules. In so doing, ordinary people with no expertise in meteorology are frequently called upon to interpret uncertainty with respect to weather forecasts. With this in mind, this study addresses two main questions: 1) How do laypeople interpret online weather reports with respect to their degree of certainty and how is previous knowledge drawn upon in this interpretation? and 2) Howdo laypeople integrate information in weather reports to determine their degree of certainty? This qualitative study is based on semistructured interviewswith 21Norwegians. The results show the following: (a) only a portion of uncertainty informationwas used, (b) symbolswere sometimes ascribed different meanings than intended, and (c) interpretations were affected by local experiences with wind direction and forecast quality. The informants’ prior knowledge was found to prevail in the event of a conflict with forecast information, and an expected range of uncertainty was often inferred into single-valued forecasts. Additionally, (d) interpretations were affected by the integration of information used to predict the time and location of precipitation. Informants typically interpreted the degree of certainty differently (more or less uncertain) than was intended. Clearer presentation of uncertainty information, a clear intent of all nuances in information, a thorough use of multimodal information, and consideration of users’ needs can help improve communication of forecast uncertainty. The diversity of user approaches makes forecast uncertainty more difficult to communicate and provides possible explanations for why communicating uncertainty is challenging.en_US
dc.language.isoengen_US
dc.publisherAmerican Meteorological Societyen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesWeather, Climate, and Society;6(3)en_US
dc.rightsThe AMS understands there is increasing demand for institutions to provide open access to the published research being produced by employees, such as faculty of that institution, and also that U.S. government policies may exist that apply to certain published research funded by particular U.S. government agencies and that require that the peer-reviewed manuscript be deposited in an appropriate repository of the applicable U.S. government agency. In recognition of this, in cases where such requirements are applicable to a particular journal article, the AMS grants permission to the author(s) to deposit the published AMS journal article in the repository of such author’s institution, and/or the appropriate U.S. funding agency repository (if applicable), provided all of the following conditions are met: The article lists the institution hosting the repository as either the author’s affiliation, or as an acknowledged U.S. agency funder of the work. The copy provided to the repository is the final published PDF of the article. (An exception to this policy can be made for a repository managed by a funding agency that requires the EOR version and will not allow it to be replaced by the definitive version. Even in those cases, every effort should be made to ensure that the publicly available version of the work is always the definitive published version; see section 6.) The repository does not provide access to the article until at least 12 months after the date of publication of the definitive version by AMS. Academic institutions that serve as the author’s institution can provide access six months after final publication. The repository copy includes the AMS copyright notice.
dc.subjectWeather forecastsen_US
dc.subjectWeather forecast websitesen_US
dc.subjectDecision makingsen_US
dc.subjectVDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400::Geofag: 450::Meteorologi: 453en_US
dc.titleHow do laypeople evaluate the degree of certainty in a weather report? A case study of the use of the Web service yr.noen_US
dc.typeJournal articleen_US
dc.typePeer revieweden_US
dc.description.version© Copyright 2014 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be “fair use” under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act September 2010 Page 2 or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC §108, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form, such as on a web site or in a searchable database, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy, available on the AMS Web site located at (http://www.ametsoc.org/) or from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or copyrights@ametsoc.org.en_US
dc.identifier.doihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-12-00054.1


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