Browsing Fakultet for teknologi, kunst og design (TKD) by Author "Jørgensen, Magne"
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Estimering av kostnader i store statlige prosjekter: Hvor gode er estimatene og usikkerhetsanalysene i KS2-rapportene?
Welde, Morten; Jørgensen, Magne; Larssen, Per Fridtjof; Halkjelsvik, Torleif (Concept-rapport;Nr. 59, Book, 2019)Ordningen med ekstern kvalitetssikring av store statlige investeringsprosjekter (KS-ordningen / statens prosjektmodell) har blant annet som formål å sikre at budsjettrammer er realistiske og at usikkerhetsvurderingene av ... -
Evaluating probabilistic software development effort estimates: Maximizing informativeness subject to calibration
Jørgensen, Magne (Information and Software Technology;Volume 115, November 2019, Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2019-08-08)Context: Probabilistic effort estimates inform about the uncertainty and may give useful input to plans, budgets and investment analyses. Objective & method: This paper introduces, motivates and illustrates two principles ... -
Sequence effects in the estimation of software development effort
Jørgensen, Magne; Halkjelsvik, Torleif (Journal of Systems and Software;Volume 159, January 2020, 110448, Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2019-10-18)Currently, little is known about how much the sequence in which software development tasks or projects are estimated affects judgment-based effort estimates. To gain more knowledge, we examined estimation sequence effects ... -
When 2 + 2 should be 5: The summation fallacy in time prediction
Halkjelsvik, Torleif; Jørgensen, Magne (Journal of Behavioral Decision Making;Volume 35, Issue 3, e2265, Journal article; Peer reviewed, 2021-11-10)Predictions of time (e.g., work hours) are often based on the aggregation of estimatesof elements (e.g., activities and subtasks). The only types of estimates that can besafely aggregated by summation are those reflecting ...