‘Crowded out’? Immigration surge and residents’ employment outcomes in Norway

Abstract

This study uses Norwegian public register data in a spatial correlation approach, and analyzes associations between regional variations in immigration and employment outcomes 2004–2015 in a cohort of adult residents (N = 1.3 million). A higher share of immigrants in the regional population and an immigrant population dominated by low-educated were associated with slightly negative work income trends and less employment opportunities for residents, in particular for low- educated natives and earlier immigrants. A steep increase in the immigrant share of the regional population was, on the other hand, associated with better employment outcomes for all analyzed resident categories. Overall, regional immigration differences were only modestly related to the out- comes. Findings indicate that the institutional context has limited the role of market mechanisms in the labor market, and a booming regional economy will tend to neutralize potentially negative effects of immigration on residents’ employment.