Why are some families with children leaving the inner city and other staying?

Abstract

Around 70 percent of those born in the inner city of Oslo move away before reaching school age despite the municipal goal of keeping more of them there, for example by securing a certain share of new construction of larger dwellings. In this study, we investigate to what degree this out-mobility is a question of preference for suburban attributes and to what degree some of those moves are a result of a combination of low income and high house prices. A highly deregulated Norwegian housing market makes it difficult to achieve an acceptable housing standard in centrally located areas of the city. Based on a comprehensive survey and a logistic regression analysis where out-movers are compared with a group of stayers in the inner city, we find that typical movers are attracted by the attributes of suburban living. Stayers prefer short distances to work, desire to live close to friends and appreciate the ability to walk or cycle to different activities. Particularly among movers to Oslo outer east, we find households with lower incomes, lower education and with a relative high share of country background from Africa and Asia. Many of them would have preferred to stay in the inner city if they could have afforded a decent home there.