A study on how oil prices influence house prices in the Norwegian market
Abstract
The price level on housing has nearly increased by 75 percent since 2005 to 20141, while oil prices have faced a large decline since late June 2014. House prices continued to increase after the oil price drop. We analyse if there is any impact on house prices after the decline of oil prices in the Norwegian market, by using an empirical model by Jacobsen and Naug. Findings indicate that oil prices have a significant direct effect on house prices, which supports that there is a link between oil prices and house prices. However, we find that oil prices have a larger indirect effect on house prices. Interest rates, unemployment, and household expectations are the fundamental factors that were most affected by oil prices. Interest rate reacts quickly and strongly to oil price fluctuations, and gives house prices a fast impact. Unemployment and interest rates are the most important fundamental factors that explain the house prices. In short term, Stavanger was the only city that was significantly influenced after the oil price declined in 2014. Prisnivået på boliger har økt med ca 75 prosent siden 2005 til 2014. Siden slutten av juni 2014 var det en stor nedgang i oljeprisene, og i denne perioden fortsatte boligprisene å stige. Vi analyserer om oljeprisfallet har en effekt på boligpriser i det norske markedet ved hjelp av en empirisk modell utredet av Jacobsen og Naug. Funnene fra analysen tyder på en signifikant direkte effekt på boligprisene, som gir støtte for at det eksisterer en sammenheng mellom oljepriser og boligpriser. Videre finner vi at oljepriser har en større indirekte effekt på boligprisene. Renter, arbeidsledighet og husholdningenes forventninger er de fundamentale faktorene som ble mest påvirket av oljepris. Rente reagerer raskt og sterkt på oljesvingninger, og har en rask effekt på boligprisene. Arbeidsledighet og renter er de viktigste fundamentale faktorene som forklarer boligprisene. Funnene viser at på kort sikt er Stavanger den eneste byen hvor boligprisene blir signifikant påvirket av oljepris fallet i 2014.
Description
Master i økonomi og administrasjon
Publisher
Oslo and Akershus University College of Applied SciencesRelated items
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